Transforming fast-growing energy markets is central to achieving global climate goals.

This evaluation reviews GEF support in China, India, Mexico, and the Russian Federation, covering 18 mitigation projects implemented between 1992 and 2012 in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and methane reduction.

Drawing on desk reviews, fieldwork, and stakeholder consultations, the study assesses direct and indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts and pathways to market transformation. Sixteen projects achieved significant direct reductions, together avoiding an estimated 169 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, while indirect reductions are likely much larger though harder to verify. Broader adoption of technologies and approaches is observed in most projects, but attribution weakens at scale and fossil fuel subsidies limit impact.

Projects that paired technology demonstrations with supportive policy frameworks and capacity building made the strongest contributions by accelerating adoption and market development.

Weaknesses in early GHG accounting reduce the reliability of reported results. The report recommends strengthening integrated approaches to overcome barriers, improving measurement of direct and indirect emissions, and refining methodologies to verify long-term impacts.