Scaling up has been central to the GEF for more than two decades, as pilots evolved into larger interventions across focal areas. Yet despite a clear vision in the GEF 2020 strategy, operational guidance remains inconsistent and progress uneven.

This evaluation is the first systematic assessment of how scaling occurs, when it succeeds, and what constrains impact.

The GEF’s comparative advantage lies in supporting pilots that demonstrate positive benefits and establishing enabling conditions for scale-up.

Evaluation overview

• Many projects lack a clear pathway from pilot to scale, apply inconsistent indicators between stages, and struggle to sustain financing and institutional support amid political and economic change.
• Scaling is most effective when GEF pilots de-risk innovations, policy frameworks and incentives are in place, and capable institutions carry efforts forward; outcomes per GEF dollar are typically greater during scale-up than during pilots.
• Recommendations emphasize embedding scaling considerations at design, strengthening systematic learning mechanisms, and requiring linked projects to apply common indicators and measurement units.

Methodology

This evaluation draws on portfolio analysis, document review, interviews, and field visits in Costa Rica, Mauritius, and North Macedonia, covering successful and less successful cases across focal areas.