Assessing whether GEF climate investments are driving real market change is central to understanding their long-term impact.

The Climate Change Program Study (2004) evaluates the GEF’s climate change portfolio from 1991 to mid-2004, focusing on outcomes and impacts of mitigation projects. Drawing on portfolio and emissions data as well as reviews in energy efficiency and renewable energy, the evaluation concludes that energy efficiency projects provide the clearest evidence of market transformation, while renewable energy results are more uneven.

Effectiveness has been greatest where policies, financing mechanisms, and technical assistance were well aligned, but the portfolio’s breadth and lengthy processing have limited coherence.

The evaluation recommends clarifying a framework for market transformation, focusing resources on countries and clusters with high GHG reduction potential, strengthening methodologies for GHG measurement, and investing more systematically in knowledge sharing to support replication.

This report was presented during: GEF Council Meeting 24