Assessing climate impact requires tracking both direct emission reductions and whether projects catalyze policies, institutions, and markets for sustained change.

This study reviews GEF’s climate change portfolio since 2004, with emphasis on mitigation during GEF-6 (2014–2018) and synthesis of adaptation through the Least Developed Countries Fund and Special Climate Change Fund. It draws on terminal evaluation reviews, field visits in Morocco and Thailand, and interviews with stakeholders to assess relevance, performance, and lessons.

The evaluation finds that climate investments remain closely aligned with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change guidance and that GEF contributes distinctive value through flexible grants, support for enabling environments, and pilot projects that integrate mitigation with broader environmental objectives.

Evidence of catalytic influence is strong for mainstreaming—about 70 percent of projects embed results into laws, policies, or programs—yet replication, scaling, and market transformation occur less often, constrained by structural barriers such as subsidies. Greenhouse gas reductions are mixed: 20 of 52 projects surpass targets, while many fall short or lack reliable data, reflecting weak systems for postcompletion tracking.

The report recommends that the Council intensify focus on enabling conditions and innovative pilots, strengthen monitoring of emission outcomes, and continue advancing adaptation through risk-sharing approaches and integration.