Traditional monitoring of forest projects often misses long-term change, but remote sensing offers clear evidence of how landscapes respond to GEF investments.

This study applies satellite data and ecological forecasting across 12 Kenyan protected areas from the 1990s to 2015 to track land cover, carbon storage, and likely future trends. The analysis shows encouraging regrowth in Kakamega and Marenji Forest Reserves, while Mount Kenya and Shimba Hills lost some forest and aboveground carbon, though declines slowed in recent years. Community programs such as the Plantation Establishment and Livelihood Improvement Scheme (PELIS) have restored forest while improving food security and incomes, and electrified fencing has reduced human–wildlife conflict. At the institutional level, the projects strengthened research capacity and fostered closer collaboration among government agencies, NGOs, and local groups.

The report recommends expanding the use of remote sensing for planning and evaluation, standardizing biophysical indicators to capture multiple benefits, embedding community engagement into ecosystem management, and ensuring sustained resources for restoration and land management.