Land degradation poses major challenges for achieving global environmental goals, yet the value for money of large-scale interventions has remained difficult to assess.

This study applies a quasi-experimental, spatially explicit analysis using geocoded data from 347 GEF land degradation projects implemented up to 2013, measuring outcomes with remote-sensing indicators of vegetation productivity, forest fragmentation, and forest cover change.

The evaluation finds that, in aggregate, projects improve vegetation productivity and forest cover consistent with indicators proposed by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, with effects most evident in areas of poor initial conditions, in sites with infrastructure access such as electricity, and when sufficient time—about five years—has passed for results to emerge. The study also shows that GEF projects make only modest gains in socioeconomic co-benefits, highlighting trade-offs between targeting environmental priorities and generating local economic outcomes.

The report recommends using geospatial analysis as a cost-effective screening tool, improving baseline and monitoring data, and strengthening project design to better balance environmental impacts with long-term socioeconomic benefits.