Emerging markets now account for 40 percent of the world’s population and a rising share of greenhouse gas emissions, making their transition critical to climate goals.

The seventh Annual Impact Report (2012–2013) assesses whether GEF support in China, India, Mexico, and Russia has reduced emissions and helped transform energy markets. The evaluation focuses on 18 completed projects from earlier GEF phases across renewable energy, efficiency, and transport, drawing on desk reviews and extensive country fieldwork. Sixteen projects achieved measurable reductions, though most fell short of original targets, and indirect impacts were estimated at far greater scale but could not be verified.

The most progress occurred where projects combined technical demonstrations with enabling policy frameworks, replication mechanisms, and local capacity building.

For example, Mexico’s lighting program and China’s Township and Village Enterprises project illustrate how alignment of standards, markets, and technology can deliver broader change. Projects that treated barriers piecemeal or lacked reliable monitoring saw limited impact.

The report recommends strengthening integrated approaches that address market barriers comprehensively, improving greenhouse gas accounting methods, and embedding verification mechanisms to assess both direct and indirect results.