With global emissions still rising, the challenge is whether relatively small investments can deliver large-scale climate benefits.

GEF has committed more than $1 billion to mitigation, financing over 270 projects in 120 countries. To assess whether this portfolio is achieving outcomes at scale, the Climate Change Program Study (2000) reviewed a subset of projects in 60 countries focused on energy efficiency, renewable energy, and sustainable transport. The evaluation draws on portfolio analysis, greenhouse gas data, cluster reviews of key technologies, and country visits to China and Mexico.

Findings show that while GEF projects are broadly relevant to national priorities, most are conceived on an ad hoc basis and rarely planned with replication in mind, limiting their potential for wider influence. Implementation has also been constrained by weak risk management and difficulties in transferring new technologies to local conditions.

At the same time, projects that built viable business models, supported policy reforms, or mobilized private cofinancing demonstrated lasting influence, with some recovering from early setbacks through adaptive management.

The report recommends building replication into project design, strengthening risk assessment and adaptive management, and embedding policy engagement and social benefit analysis across the portfolio.